{"id":5030,"date":"2025-04-04T09:43:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T02:43:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sdgs.nesdc.go.th\/when-rain-doesnt-fall-how-drought-impacts-the-world\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T14:47:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T07:47:11","slug":"when-rain-doesnt-fall-how-drought-impacts-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sdgs.nesdc.go.th\/en\/when-rain-doesnt-fall-how-drought-impacts-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"When Rain Doesn’t Fall: how Drought Impacts the World"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The increasingly severe drought problem is becoming a global crisis that affects ecosystems, economies, and people’s livelihoods on a wide scale, particularly as climate change accelerates the severity of the situation. In 2024, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) published the report “The Global Threat of Drying Lands<\/strong> : Regional and global aridity trends and future projections”<\/strong> revealing that over the past 30 years, drylands have expanded by 4.3 million square kilometers, an area nearly equivalent to half of Australia. It is projected that by 2100, if greenhouse gas emissions remain at high levels, another 3% of the world’s humid areas may become drylands. This situation has resulted in the population living in drylands increasing to 2.3 billion people and could surge to 5 billion people. This report highlights the drought situation, the overall impacts of drought across environmental, economic, social, and health dimensions, as well as future trends in dryland expansion, along with policy recommendations for sustainably addressing this crisis.<\/p>\n\n

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“Unlikedroughts<\/strong> which are temporary periods of low rainfallaridity<\/strong> refers to permanent and irreversible changeDroughts can end, but when the climate of an area becomes drier than beforethe ability to return to its original state is lost. The drier climateaffects large landmasses around the world and cannot return to their original stateand this change is creating a new definition for life on Earth” \u2013 Ibrahim Thiaw<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n

Aridity and drought<\/strong> are natural phenomena that differ in both characteristics and duration. Aridity refers to a climate condition with permanent and prolonged moisture deficiency, making such areas unsuitable for most life forms. In contrast, droughts are temporary conditions caused by short-term water scarcity, often resulting from below-normal rainfall, rising temperatures, reduced air humidity, or wind anomalies. While droughts can occur in almost all climate types and are part of natural variability, aridity is a stable condition that changes slowly under severe environmental pressures.<\/strong> The long-term impacts of aridity may be difficult to assess, but it is projected that by the end of this century, nearly 2 out of 5 of the world’s population may live in drylands and face increased risks from water scarcity.<\/strong> Water scarcity refers to the gap between available freshwater and water demand, often linked to aridity, but is also driven by inefficient water management and excessive water use, all factors that intensify water scarcity situations.<\/p>\n\n

Drought Situation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The drought phenomenon is forming into a global crisis, with more than 75% of the Earth’s land experiencing increased aridity.<\/strong> Global drylands have expanded by 4.3 million square kilometers, equivalent to half the area of Australia and Oceania. Currently, drylands cover 40.6% of the Earth’s surface (excluding Antarctica), severely impacting ecosystems and human well-being. This is not temporary moisture deficiency, but permanent loss of moisture in soil and atmosphere.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Furthermore, climate change caused by human activities is the main factor driving increased aridity today. If greenhouse gas emissions cannot be effectively controlled, it is projected that 3% of the world’s humid areas will transform into drylands by 2100.<\/strong> Although this percentage may seem small, when considering the actual area size, it is equivalent to several large countries combined. Along with dryland expansion, the population living in these areas is rapidly increasing. The population in drylands has doubled in just 30 years, currently reaching 2.3 billion people, meaning more than 1 in 4 of the world’s population faces such conditions. It is further projected that by 2100, there may be up to 5 billion people living in drylands, resulting in food and water insecurity, land degradation, reduced agricultural productivity, biodiversity loss, ecosystem deterioration, severe dust and sandstorms, widespread wildfires, deteriorating public health, and leading to large-scale migration. This cycle of degradation creates vulnerability across ecosystems, economies, and societies, making recovery increasingly difficult, especially in developing countries with limited resources.<\/strong> Understanding trends and future projections of drought situations is key to developing effective adaptation and mitigation approaches.<\/p>\n\n

Drought Threatens Ecosystems, Economies, and People<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

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The impacts of drought do not appear in isolation but are a complex weaving of interconnected problems, starting from soil degradation and desertification, leading to ecosystem and biodiversity decline, causing more severe dust and sandstorms, affecting human health and economic systems. Meanwhile, severe water scarcity impacts the agricultural sector and food security, leading to poverty and malnutrition. When people cannot sustain life in drylands, migration becomes an unavoidable phenomenon, creating pressure on social structures and economic systems in destination areas. This demonstrates systemic impacts that spread and interconnect inseparably, reflecting the vulnerability of ecosystems, economies, and people threatened by drought, as follows:<\/p>\n\n

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  • Land degradation and desertification<\/strong> Drought is one of five main factors causing land degradation, along with soil erosion, soil salinity problems, loss of organic carbon, and vegetation degradation, directly affecting soil water retention capacity, reducing fertility, and leading to permanent soil structure changes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Dust and sandstorms<\/strong> Increased aridity in the Middle East is linked to increased frequency and intensity of dust and sandstorms, caused by reduced rainfall and increased water evaporation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Ecosystems and biodiversity<\/strong> According to recent projections, by 2100, more than 1 in 5 of the world’s areas may face sudden and severe ecosystem changes, which is not just changes in plant and animal species, but may lead to permanent biodiversity loss.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Wildfires<\/strong> Dry climate conditions also cause biomass to become dry fuel ready for easy combustion, a key factor stimulating larger and more severe wildfires in the future, causing damage to ecosystems and property, while releasing massive amounts of greenhouse gases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Water scarcity<\/strong> If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, even slightly, more than 2 out of 3 of the world’s areas (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) will face reduced water reserves by 2100.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Agriculture and food security<\/strong> Drought affects 40% of global agricultural areas, impacting agricultural biodiversity, soil fertility, and the agricultural sector’s ability to adapt to climate change, leading to food shortages, food insecurity, and famine risks, especially in vulnerable regions that depend primarily on agriculture.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Poverty<\/strong> Drought is a significant factor affecting economic growth in African countries, causing a 12% reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of African countries between 1990-2015, resulting in lost economic opportunities, increased conflicts, and forced migration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Human health<\/strong> Drought affects poverty, water scarcity, land degradation, and inadequate food production. These factors are linked to increased morbidity and mortality rates. Understanding and addressing human health problems linked to drought is therefore essential for promoting public health and well-being.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Human migration<\/strong> Drought is a significant factor driving human migration worldwide, particularly in the arid regions of Southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia, affecting people’s livelihoods and safety.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

    Global Dryland Expansion: Future Trends and Regional Impacts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Global dryland expansion has increased over the past few decades. Regions clearly affected include the western United States, which has experienced the longest continuous drought in hundreds of years; Brazil, which has seen reduced water levels in the Amazon River; most of Europe, which faces severe heat waves and water scarcity; the Asian region, particularly East Asia, which has increased water evaporation rates; and Central Africa, which has experienced rapid loss of agricultural land. Data from studies show that only<\/strong> 22.4% of global areas are likely to become more humid<\/strong>, including areas in the central United States, the Atlantic coast of Angola, and Southeast Asia in the Pacific Ocean, particularly in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which tend to receive higher rainfall.<\/p>\n\n

    It is projected that aridity will continue to increase in the future as climate changes. Regions at risk of this change include the west-central United States, which is a major global food production area; central Mexico, which has high population density; northern Venezuela, which has diverse ecosystems; northeastern Brazil, which is an important agricultural area; southeastern Argentina, which is a global grain production source; the entire Mediterranean region, which has a long history of civilization; the Black Sea coastal region, which is economically important; most of South Africa, which has dense population; and southern Australia, both western and eastern coasts, which are economically and agriculturally important. In these areas, no areas are expected to change from past drylands to future humid areas, but instead, there will be increases in semi-arid and semi-humid arid areas in all regions worldwide.<\/strong> This demonstrates the urgent need to develop adaptation and mitigation approaches at global, regional, and local levels to address the continuously increasing drought challenges in the future, to protect water, food, and ecosystem security that is vital to human survival.<\/p>\n\n

    Approaches to Sustainable Global Drought Management<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    The drought problem is intensifying worldwide, affecting ecosystems and communities of more than 55% of the global population, with drought-affected areas increasing by 29% over the past decade, leading to economic losses of over $124 billion USD per year. This UNCCD report presents approaches to sustainable global drought management, emphasizing strengthening drought management through comprehensive and systematic approaches to enhance community and ecosystem resilience and adaptability, as follows:<\/p>\n\n

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    • Strengthening monitoring systems and crisis threshold identification<\/strong> by supporting the use of drought observatories and the United Nations Early Warning for All project to promote regional cooperation in early warning, enabling timely crisis response, as well as using artificial intelligence technology to help detect, predict, and assess drought-related risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Bringing global drought impact standards to the local level<\/strong> by considering community participation through integrating traditional community knowledge, helping create effective and context-appropriate adaptation approaches for each locality, so communities can apply adaptation approaches that align with their needs and contexts appropriately.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Integrating drought response plans into national strategies<\/strong> such as National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which will help promote community participation and support sustainable water and land management approaches. Additionally, having a framework for monitoring drought-specific indicators will help ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of climate change adaptation efforts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Integration for soil restoration and enhancing drought recovery capacity<\/strong> Promoting sustainable land use practices such as conservation agriculture and agroforestry helps restore soil and enhance drought recovery capacity. Creating appropriate policy incentives and market mechanisms will help support farmers and land users to transition their practices toward sustainability. Additionally, financial support and knowledge in soil and water conservation play important roles in increasing agricultural productivity in drought-affected areas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Promoting cross-sectoral governance and cooperation<\/strong> Effective drought management requires cross-sectoral governance and cooperation at all levels, such as the UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality frameworkThrough cooperation between local, regional, national, and international levels, it plays an important role in mobilizing resources and promoting innovative projects in sustainable land and water management.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

      When the Government Moves Forward to Address Drought for Water and Life Security<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

      From the drought situation that is intensifying and trending to expand globally according to the 2024 UNCCD report, which states that drylands have increased by more than 4.3 million square kilometers and may affect approximately 5 billion people worldwide by 2100, Thailand, which is in a region vulnerable to climate change, needs proactive measures to effectively address such crises, especially during the approaching dry season. The Thai government has recognized the urgent need to plan drought response through clear and comprehensive policies and measures.<\/strong> The Cabinet has approved drought preparedness measures for 2023\/2024 and projects to enhance water resource management efficiency to address drought situations and intermittent rainfall in 2024, assigning agencies to implement these measures and report to the National Water Resources Committee (NWRC), while summarizing implementation results for Cabinet reporting.<\/p>\n\n

      The Office of National Water Resources (ONWR) is the main agency driving the integration of measures in 3 areas: water sources, water demand, and management, through 9 combined measures<\/strong> including securing reserve water sources, establishing water allocation plans by priority, controlling dry season crop cultivation, and public relations to raise community awareness. All relevant agencies must regularly report implementation results to ONWR to enable evaluation and plan adjustments to align with rapidly changing situations. In addition to measures, the government has also initiated water security enhancement projects in 5 main categories<\/strong> including repair and improvement of hydraulic structures, procurement of machinery and equipment to assist in risk areas, increasing water sources, and creating water sources for consumption, which not only help mitigate short-term impacts but also aim to enhance income and employment in drought-affected areas. <\/p>\n\n

      Thailand’s government operations are therefore an example of policy and practice integration that aligns with global drought management approaches<\/strong> by emphasizing advance preparation, community participation, efficient resource use, and systematic monitoring and evaluation systems, which align with UNCCD recommendations on integrating drought response plans with national strategies and developing cross-sectoral cooperation to enhance long-term ecosystem and community recovery capacity. The proactive measures being driven at the national level are therefore not just immediate solutions, but important foundations for climate change adaptation and developing sustainable water resource management approaches.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

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      Drought is a crisis intensifying worldwide, affecting ecosystems, economies, and human livelihoods. The expansion of drylands and desertification is a problem that requires urgent solutions, especially in areas vulnerable to severe climate change. Without urgent and effective action, large populations worldwide will face risks from water and food scarcity, land degradation, and migration. An interesting question is: How can we manage water and land sustainably to reduce drought impacts in areas at risk of desertification?<\/strong> Solving this problem requires global cooperation, both implementing modern technology and creating effective early warning systems, so communities can adapt and sustainably address emerging challenges.<\/p>\n